February 23, 2026 | Finliti | Free Subscriber 😃

Nvidia Nerves 👩🏻‍💻 Nvidia whipped markets around on AI headlines, yields climbed, oil firmed on Iran tension, and private-credit names took a hit as investors reassessed “AI winners” and “AI losers.

Highlights From Last Week:

• 🤖 Nvidia and AI chip headlines drove sharp intraday swings despite modest index moves.
• 📈 Treasury yields climbed as tech briefly lifted the tape midweek.
• 🛢️ Oil edged higher on U.S.–Iran jitters while risk pockets (private credit) cooled.

​​​

US Markets: AI Whiplash Week

U.S. stocks experienced a whirlwind of volatility in the shortened trading week. The S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq all finished modestly higher Tuesday after swinging between gains and losses, with Nvidia (NVDA) playing seesaw both ways. Wednesday saw tech lift the market, led by Nvidia after Meta’s (META) AI chip deal, while Treasury yields climbed. Thursday brought a slight pullback, with private-credit stocks dropping amid AI competition worries. Oil edged higher on U.S.-Iran tensions. Overall, headline moves were modest, but beneath the surface, markets saw sharp swings driven by tech, AI developments, and geopolitical jitters.

What does it mean for you?

Overall market performance can mask underlying volatility, with individual sectors and stocks driving swings even when overall indices appear stable. Short-term movements often reflect sector-specific news and investor sentiment rather than broad economic trends.

TSX: Quiet North, Global Crosswinds

Canadian stocks kicked off a four-day week with plenty of action. Tuesday, the S&P/TSX dropped as basic materials lagged and investors rotated into other sectors. Wednesday saw a bounce of nearly 500 points on tech sector gains. Thursday, it added 205 points, led by energy amid rising oil prices and U.S.-Iran tensions. Notably, Cenovus Energy (CVE) climbed 4% after reporting a strong quarterly profit. Daily moves showed tech and energy powering rebounds, while materials weighed on early-week performance, keeping the TSX lively and full of shifts throughout the week.

What does this mean for you?

Sector performance and external factors can drive significant daily swings in Canadian markets. It highlights the market’s sensitivity to commodity prices and geopolitical developments, showing that even within a single week, different sectors can lead or lag, shaping overall market momentum and sentiment.

Crypto: Stabilizing Under Pressure

Bitcoin stabilized Thursday around US $67,000 after briefly dipping below US $66,000, while most altcoins stayed flat or slightly lower. Meanwhile, White House talks on a digital asset market structure bill showed some progress. Markets were also influenced by private credit strains and U.S.-Iran tensions, with derivatives traders buying downside protection. U.S. bitcoin ETF investors remain mostly underwater near an US $84,000 cost basis, though total holdings are close to peak levels, suggesting institutions are adjusting positions carefully rather than rushing out.

What does this mean for you?

Crypto markets remain sensitive to broader economic, regulatory, and geopolitical factors, with price movements influenced by both global events and investor behavior. Institutional activity, including measured position adjustments, shows that while volatility persists, market participants are navigating risk cautiously, affecting liquidity and sentiment.

Emerging Markets: Hedge Funds Go Heavy Asia

Hedge funds went big on Asian stocks recently, reaching their highest exposure since at least 2016, according to Goldman Sachs. Korea, Taiwan, and China led the buying, while India saw modest selling. Major indices gained, with Korea’s Kospi leading the way, followed by Japan’s Nikkei and Taiwan’s Taiex. Funds bought across most sectors including tech, real estate, industrials, and consumer discretionary, but avoided financials. Overall gross leverage climbed to a five-year high, showing that hedge funds were taking on more risk while betting on further gains in both developed and emerging Asian markets.

What does this mean for you?

The activity highlights growing attention on Asian markets and indicates that these regions are attracting significant capital. Elevated leverage levels suggest heightened market engagement and risk appetite among major funds. Such shifts may influence liquidity, sector dynamics, and overall market sentiment in Asia, reflecting broader trends in global equity flows.

Commodity Craze: Strait of Hormuz Risk Premium

Oil prices jumped to seven-month highs Thursday, with Brent at US $71.66 and US crude at US $66.43 per barrel, as US-Iran tensions flared. Gold also rose above US $5,000 per ounce as a safe haven. Worries center on the Strait of Hormuz after Iran’s naval exercises. Ongoing US-Iran talks haven’t resolved nuclear disputes, while markets factor in potential supply risks, boosting volatility and influencing global stocks and inflation expectations.

What does this mean for you?

The situation highlights how geopolitical events can quickly influence commodity and broader market sentiment, even without actual supply disruptions. It underscores the role of risk premiums in pricing assets like oil and gold and shows that investor behavior often reacts to perceived threats to critical global infrastructure, affecting market volatility.

Meme Stock Stalkers: Raspberry Pi Frenzy

​Raspberry Pi (RPI), a UK-based maker of low-cost, single-board computers, has seen its shares climb nearly 50% in a week on the London Stock Exchange, drawing some comparisons to past meme stock stars. The move followed a post on X suggesting AI-related demand could lift sales of affordable devices, including products from Apple (AAPL). While retail investors appear to be contributing to the rally, Raspberry Pi reported GBP £260 million in fiscal 2024 revenue and GBP £63 million in gross profit.

What does this mean for you?

Raspberry Pi’s surge illustrates how retail sentiment and social media trends can drive rapid share price movements, sometimes independent of fundamentals. It highlights the influence of AI-related hype on tech hardware and shows that short-term volatility can arise from market behavior shaped more by narrative than by traditional earnings metrics.

Moderate Markets: Amazon Overtakes Walmart

​Amazon (AMZN) has overtaken Walmart (WMT) in annual revenue for the first time, earning US $716.9 billion compared with Walmart’s US $713.2 billion. Amazon’s growth is fueled not just by retail, but also cloud computing, advertising, and third-party seller services. Both companies are embracing AI to enhance shopping and operations: Amazon’s Rufus assistant guides millions of customers, while Walmart uses ChatGPT, Google Gemini, and its Sparky tool to boost sales and engagement. The milestone highlights an evolving rivalry where technology, digital innovation, and customer experience are increasingly shaping the retail landscape.

What does this mean for you?

Amazon surpassing Walmart illustrates how diverse revenue streams and technology adoption can shift market dynamics. It highlights the growing role of AI and digital tools in shaping competitive advantage, showing that retail leadership now increasingly depends on innovation, operational efficiency, and integration of new technologies alongside traditional sales.

ESG: Pension Plans Pivot

Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan (OTPP), which manages over CAD $269 billion in assets, has launched its 2026–2030 climate strategy. After exceeding its 2025 goal with a 50% cut in portfolio emissions intensity from 2019 levels, OTPP is shifting from emissions targets to scaling climate-focused investments with real-world impact. The strategy emphasizes backing climate solutions and supporting portfolio companies’ decarbonization plans. OTPP aims to grow Climate Transition Aligned private market investments to CAD $70 billion by 2030 and align most of its portfolio with low-emission or transition-focused assets by 2050.

What does this mean for you?

Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan’s strategy shifts from portfolio emissions targets to expanding climate-related investments. For investors, this indicates greater capital allocation to transition-aligned assets and increased engagement with companies on decarbonization planning. The approach reflects a portfolio positioning adjustment tied to long-term climate transition trends and net-zero objectives.

Jargon Word of the Week

The junk bond market is where companies or organizations that have a higher risk of not being able to pay back their debts sell their bonds to raise money. Because there’s a greater chance that these bonds won’t be paid back in full, investors who buy them can earn higher interest rates than they would from safer bonds. However, there’s also a bigger chance that they could lose some or all of their investment.

In a sentence, please!

"During periods of economic uncertainty, many investors become wary of putting their money into the junk bond market."